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Short Note: Stock & Currency Markets Performance

8 Novrmber 2016

For a couple of months, the stock markets have been experiencing lots of investors' jitters due to the high uncertainties of the US presidential elections. At this election day of November 8th, Hillary Clinton has a few percentage numbers in the polls over Donald Trump. Nevertheless, the US electoral system might not lead to a certain win for Clinton; it might be an upset by Trump when the final number concluded in the night of No. 8. Most American political analysts project a 60 to 80 percent win for Hillary Clinton even after FBI announced no ground to charge Clinton in its current e-mail investigation last Sunday. So, it might be safe to guess a 3 over 5 chances of win by Clinton.

However, the stock and currency markets will be subject an abnormal swing in the day after Nov. 8. If Trump win, the market will be pressured to sell off; if Clinton win, the stock market as it hopes Clinton win, will bounce sharply after the persistent low trading level for weeks. ("Equity volatility in the November of presidential election years has historically been 22 percent above the average for all months ... going back to the Herbert Hoover administration." according to bloomberg.com )

The same volatility applies to the US currency. If Trump wins, the greenback will tumble and if Clinton wins, it will strengthen, in the short term. In the long run, the strength or weakness of the currency will depend on the economies, the future interest rates and the other factor.


Most pollster are surprised by this stunning upset by Trump. The US stock future market tanked and the global markets all declined a little. Fortunately, the initial shocks in the stock and currency markets now eased in the morning of Nov 9. Nevertheless, there are lots of certainties in the future, depending the development of Trump's policies and administration.

At his victory speech, one notable is: he says he will increase spending to spur economy growth (Nov 9, 2016).

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